热带气象学报2011，Vol.27Issue(3)：336-344,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.03.006
择优法降水集合预报试验的研究
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS ON PRECIPITATION BY USING OPTIMIZATION METHOD
摘要
Abstract
A new optimization method is proposed for ensemble precipitation forecasts based on an ensemble averaging prediction method. The optimization method is discussed and tested with a multi-physics ensemble prediction system. This paper selects as filtered factors the correlation coefficients of temperature differences of 500 hPa and 700 hPa(T(500-700)) between previous 24 h forecasts from the ensemble members and the observations. The members with bigger coefficients are selected as the members for the optimization ensemble prediction. Results show that the optimization method is better than the ensemble averaging method and the 24 h ensemble precipitation forecasts are improved. The optimization method is simple and easy to use. In light of limited computing resources, the running time for ensemble prediction can be shortened by running in priority the optimization ensemble members.关键词
天气预报/集合预报/择优法/集合平均法Key words
weather forecast/ ensemble prediction/ optimization method/ ensemble averaging method分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郝世峰,潘劲松,李冲,崔晓鹏..择优法降水集合预报试验的研究[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(3):336-344,9.基金项目
浙江省自然科学基金项目"多参数化方案集合预报应用研究"(Y505286)资助 （Y505286）
