运筹与管理2011，Vol.20Issue(3)：87-91,5.
单个生产商和多个零售商缺货概率的计算法
Solution of Short Supply Probability for One Manufacturer and Several Retailers
摘要
Abstract
The uncertainty of the demand, results in being out of stock.How to calculate the probability of being out of stock is a difficult issue.This paper models the supply chain, into Markov process; which is composed of a manufacturer and several retailers.It analyzes the transition relationship of all the states of the supply chain by using the queuing theory, and takes one manufacture and three retailers as an example to clarify the internal structure of the matrix which describes the transitions among the states.It also gives the formula for calculating the probability of being out of stock and full of stock in the general model.On the basis of this, the effect of the probability of all the states on the total inventory cost is analyzed.It lays the foundation of analysis for the optimization of the system.Numerical experiments illustrate that the proposed method is effective.关键词
供应链管理/缺货概率/排队论/库存成本Key words
supply chain management/ probability of being out of stock/ queuing theory/ inventory costs分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
仇莉,张君卿..单个生产商和多个零售商缺货概率的计算法[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(3):87-91,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971115) （70971115）
河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2009000520) （G2009000520）
