安徽农业科学2009，Vol.37Issue(33)：16476-16478,3.
基于逻辑斯蒂方程的耕地需求预测——以浙江省为例
Predication of Cultivated Land Demand Based on Logistic Equation
摘要
Abstract
The regional summary of Zhejiang Province and the connotation of Logistic Equation were introduced. According to the relevant statistical data form 1978 to 2006, the dynamic variation of cultivated land and its driving factors in Zhejiang Province were analyzed. The future variation of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province was predicted by adopting Logistic Equation. The prediction results indicated that by 2020, accumulated reduced area wouldn't increase and the amount would be 90.91 thousand hectare at that time. Meanwhile, the cultivated land of Zhejiang Province would remain stable at 1 498.24 thousand hectare or around it. The study showed that with the optimization of industrial structure, the occupation of cultivated land by urbanization and industrialization wasn't increased, but tended to stop increasing at a stage. With the progress of technology and increase of land input, the cultivated land for ensuring grain security was decreasing gradually. Hence, the land demand of urbanization, industrialization and grain security can be balanced.关键词
逻辑斯蒂方程/耕地需求/预测/浙江省Key words
Logistic Equation/ Cultivated land demand/ Predication/ Zhejiang Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
乔瑞波,李玉平,蔡运龙..基于逻辑斯蒂方程的耕地需求预测——以浙江省为例[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(33):16476-16478,3.基金项目
科技基础性工作专项重点项目(2007FY140800). （2007FY140800）
