北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2009，Vol.45Issue(5)：531-536,6.
基于Tweedie分布的日降水量统计降尺度模型
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALE MODEL FOR DALLY PRECIPITATION BASED ON TWEEDIE DISTRIBUTION
摘要
Abstract
Based on generalized linear model (GLM) of Tweedie distribution and Kriging model, a combined GLM-Kriging model for statistical downscaling of daily precipitation has been developed. GLM is first fitted to represent relations between daily precipitations and corresponding model output variables influencing rainfall in studied area; spatial dependency of daily precipitation is inherited by model residuals. A Kriging model is then fitted to randomized quantile residuals of fitted GLM. The model has been applied to 42 daily precipitation observations for the Yishusi Basin in July 2007 together with NCEP Reanalysis II data. Data show that the GLM-Kriging downscaling model successfully retrieved main rainfall processes during that month and obtained high prediction accuracy. The GLM-Kriging downscaling model can be used for climate change impact assessment and model output statistics of numerical weather product, and can be further expanded into a spatial-temporal model for daily precipitation.关键词
日降水量/统计降尺度/广义线性模型/Tweedie分布/Kriging模型Key words
daily precipitatioN/statistical downscaling/generalized linear model (GLM)/Tweedie distribution,Kriging model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨赤,严中伟,邵月红..基于Tweedie分布的日降水量统计降尺度模型[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2009,45(5):531-536,6.基金项目
中国气象局气象行业专项资助项目(GYHY(QX)2007-6-1) （GYHY(QX）
中国科学院东亚区域气候一环境重点实验室一般开放课题资助项目 （）
