大气科学学报2009，Vol.32Issue(5)：716-722,7.
AOGS第六届学术年会气象学研究报告综述
A Review of the Meteorological Research at the AOGS 6th Annual Meeting
摘要
Abstract
This paper reviews the meteorological research reported at the sixth annual meeting of Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS)including the predictability of weather and climate, a coordinated Asian monsoon experiment, the monsoon variability and modeling, climate change and tropical climatic hazards in Asia and Oceania, Middle atmosphere science, mesoscale meteorology and typhoon,and ap-plications of satellite data etc. On the background of global climate change,the interdecadal variability of the Asian monsoon, its possible mechanism and its impact on the weather and climate are hot re-search topics in atmospheric sciences. Discussions on the formation mechanism of the Asian monsoon system and its relation to the climatic system may improve the capability of the numerical models in the simulation of the monsoon system, and predict the monsoon system and its variability more accurately. Ensemble forecast, in particular the multimodel superensemble forecast technique has aroused considera-ble interest of scientists. The results of presentations at the meeting show that the unified multi-cumulus convective ensemble scheme,the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF),the conditional nonlinear optimal per-turbation as well as the multimodel superensemble with the running training period are able to improve the accuracy of the numerical weather prediction significantly.The"predictability barrier"also appears in the prediction of the atmospheric circulation system in the AGCM.The main origin of the"predicta.bility barrier"in physical essence is the seasonal variability characteristic of the climate systems. Further study shows that more tropical cyclones(TCs)or more intense TCs depend on which factors. thermody-namic or dynamic factors, play a key role in the TCs formation and development in the ocean basins where the TCs form.As global warming is likely contributing to more favorable thermodynamic condi-tions for the formation and development of TCs.more TCs or more intense TCs are expected in the ocean basins where thermodynamic factors are important and significant.Some results show that the per-sistent anomalies of blockings in middle and high latitudes as well as the heating anomalies over South China Sea may be the main causes of the extreme weather of low temperature, icy rain and snow in southem China in early 2008.In addition. the satellite observations using Formosat-2 and Formosat-3 may significantly improve the operational numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring,and space weather forecasting.关键词
可预报性/气候变化/季风/中层大气/卫星资料Key words
predictability/climate change/monsoon/middle atmosphere/satellite data分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
智协飞,张玲..AOGS第六届学术年会气象学研究报告综述[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(5):716-722,7.基金项目
2007年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项"面向TIGGE的集合预报关键应用技术研究"(GYHY(QX)2007-6-1) （气象）
教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金 （）
