农业工程学报2009，Vol.25Issue(10)：50-56,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2009.10.009
新疆地区参考作物腾发量的灰色模型预测
Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration with grey model in Xinjiang region
摘要
Abstract
Based on daily meteorological observation data of six stations in Xinjiang region, Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate daily reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_0). The rescaled range analysis method was applied to analyze future tendency of annual ET_0. Grey relational theory was used to calculate the correlation degree and order between meteorological factors and annual ET_0 for each station. Based on that, grey information renewal GM(1, h) model of unequal dimensions which was established by the grey systematic theory was used to simulate and predict annual ET_0 of the six stations, and GM(1, h) model was compared with it. The results showed that the tendency of month ET_0 was parabola, and the sequence of ET_0 variation with month was Ruoqiang > Tulufan > Hami > Kashi > Hetian > Yining, respectively. From April to September, the Hurst indice of annual ET_0 in six stations were all larger than 0.5, the future tend of stations were still volatility decreasing which were positively related to their history. In general, the annual ET_0 values of various stations were mostly affected by average temperature, sunshine hours, saturated pressure difference. The relative error limits for the predictions using grey information renewal GM(1, h) model of unequal dimensions ranged from 0 to 7.31%, with obviously high accuracy of prediction than GM(1,1) model. This study shows that accuracy of predicting reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang region is relatively good.关键词
腾发量/统计方法/预测/重标极差法/灰色关联/不等维递补/GM(1/1)模型Key words
evapotranspiration/ statistical methods/ forecasting/ rescaled range analysis/ grey relation/ information renewal of unequal dimensions/ GM(1,1) model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
赵旭,李毅,刘俊民..新疆地区参考作物腾发量的灰色模型预测[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(10):50-56,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50709028) （50709028）
