生态学报2009，Vol.29Issue(11)：5799-5806,8.
应用马尔可夫链理论对褐飞虱和白背飞虱发生程度的预测
Forecasting the occurrence degree of brown planthopper and whitebacked planthopper by applying Markov model
摘要
Abstract
Brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) and whitebacked planthopper Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) are two important long-distance migration insect pests that cause great losses to rice yield in China. In this paper, by using the transition probability method of Markov chain theory, the transition probability matrix of 1 to 5 steps was constructed based on the time series data of two planthoppers surveyed in rice paddy from 1983 to 2007 in Xiushan county, Chongqing, China. The weight of every step by the rewarding accuracy of each step in transition probability matrix was calculated and the occurrence degree of the sixth years was predicted based on the occurrence status of the previous 5 consecutive years. The result showed that history rewarding accuracy was 90% for the 20 years data from 1988 to 2007 and it accorded with the occurrence situation in 2008 for the both pests completely. The transition probability matrix and the weights constructed in this study have great guiding significance to forecast the occurrence grade of the two planthoppers for Xiushan and its neighboring areas. It offers a rapid and effective method for the long-term or the super-long term predictability of the pests.关键词
褐飞虱/白背飞虱/马尔可夫链/转移概率Key words
brown planthopper/ whitebacked planthopper/ Markov chain theory/ transition probability分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
闫香慧,赵志模,刘怀,谢雪梅,肖晓华,程登发..应用马尔可夫链理论对褐飞虱和白背飞虱发生程度的预测[J].生态学报,2009,29(11):5799-5806,8.基金项目
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAD08A01) （2006BAD08A01）
