天然气工业2009，Vol.29Issue(11)：83-85,3.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2009.11.026
概率法在油气储量计算中的应用
Application of the stochastic method to oil and gas reserves estimation
摘要
Abstract
Reserve estimation is one of the most important parts of reservoir exploration and development, and is also the ba-sis of development policy and plan making. Currently, for reserve estimation, there are volumetric method, analogy method and material balance method. Compared with the other two, the volumetric method shows a better suitability, which includes two numerical methods,i.e. Deterministic and stochastic in parameter deterrhination. Hereby, the differences of calculation con-cept between the deterministic method and the stochastic method were compared firstly. Then, geological reserves were esti-mated as a practice using the deterministic method and the stochastic method respectively. Analysis and results show that arith-metic mean values are applied to all the physical property parameters by the deterministic method, while for the stochastic method, probable distribution function of the calculated parameters is determined and then reserves corresponding to different probability are obtained through multiple iterations of Monte Carlo simulation. Compared with the deterministic method, calcu-lation results show that the stochastic method which can offer a series of reserves based on varying risks, thus better assessing reserve risks can supply a better reference for the investment decision-makers.关键词
油气勘探/油气开发/地质储量/参数/概率法/确定法/客积法/应用Key words
geological reserves/parameters/stochastic method/deterministic method/volumetric method分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
贾成业,贾爱林,邓怀群,何东博,孟德伟,陈涛涛..概率法在油气储量计算中的应用[J].天然气工业,2009,29(11):83-85,3.基金项目
本文受到中国石油重大科技项目"特殊天然气藏开发配套技术研究"(2008B-1100)的资助. （2008B-1100）
