灾害学2009，Vol.24Issue(4)：51-57,7.
基于关键区海温的华南香蕉寒害长期预报模型探讨
Study on Seasonal Forecast of Banana Chilling Injury in South China Based on Sea Surface Temperature of Key Areas
摘要
Abstract
Based on the climate data, SST, historical records of chilling injury from 10 selected meteorological observation stations in South China in the period of 1961-2005, the long-term forecasting model of banana chilling injury in South China is studied. Results show that the banana chilling injury index (ICI) defined in this article coincides well with historical records of chilling injury and could effectively indicate the degree of chilling injury. According to the result of correlation analyses, the key areas of pre-summer sea surface temperature that affect chilling injury in South China are identified: (5°S～5°N, 170° ～ 120°W) , (50°～60°N, 180°～140°W)、(20°～30°N,140°～110°W)、(30°～40°N,140°E～150°E)、(40°～50°N,150°E～170°E).The key areas of pre-summer sea surface temperature are of significant physical implication to chilling injury in South China. Taking sea surface temperature in key areas as an independent variable, stepwise regression analysis is used to establish long-term forecasting model for the banana chilling injury in South China. The data of 1961～1900 is used for establishing the model and data of 1991～2004 are used for testing the model. Accuracy of model fitting and prediction is higher than 88% , which indicates that the model has a high accuracy.关键词
香蕉/寒害指数/海温/关键区/预报模型/华南地区Key words
banana/ chilling injury index/ sea surface temperature/ key areas/ prediction model/ South China分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
翟志宏,廖树华,姜会飞,霍治国,胡国权,高静,肖静..基于关键区海温的华南香蕉寒害长期预报模型探讨[J].灾害学,2009,24(4):51-57,7.基金项目
国家"十一五"科技支撑项目(2006BAD04B03)、(2008BAK50B02)资助 （2006BAD04B03）
