干旱区研究2011，Vol.28Issue(4)：669-676,8.
21世纪青藏高原气候时空变化评估
Spatiotemporal Distribution of Climate Change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 21st Century
摘要
Abstract
By comparing the data calculated with 23 models from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,precipitation data from GPCP and air temperature data from ECMWF,the spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 21st century was analyzed by using the output data of 11 models and the high-resolution dynamical downscaling data on A1B scenarios.The result of 11-model ensemble mean shows that the air temperature and precipitation will increase by 1.98 ℃ and 0.06 mm/d in the mid-21st century compared with those in 2008,but by 3.93 ℃ and 0.24 mm/d at the end-21st century.The results analyzed with the dynamical downscaling reveal that there will be the significant wetting and warming trends over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in next 100 years,the spatial distribution of precipitation will be quite uneven,and there is a big uncertainty in simulating precipitation variation.关键词
模式集合/动力降尺度/气候变化/气温/降水/青藏高原Key words
model ensemble/dynamical downscaling/climate change/air temperature/precipitation/Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
程志刚,刘晓东,范广洲,白爱娟,王炳赟..21世纪青藏高原气候时空变化评估[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(4):669-676,8.基金项目
成都信息工程学院科研基金(KYTZ201006) （KYTZ201006）
国家自然基金重大项目(40825008) （40825008）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(40975020) （40975020）
高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放基金(PAEKL-2009-K1)共同资助 （PAEKL-2009-K1）
