水土保持通报2011，Vol.31Issue(3)：1-6,11,7.
厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对长江流域气候的影响研究
Effects of El Nio-Southern Oscillation Events on Climate in Yangtze River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the meteorological and natural disaster data in the Yangtze river basin during the last 60 years,we studied the influence of El Nio—Southern Oscillation（ENSO） events on the climate in the nine subbasins or regions of the Yangtze river basin including Jinshajing/Yalongjiang river,Mintuojiang river,upstream of Yangtze river.Statistical analysis of the relationships between climate factors（precipitation,temperature,natural disaster events etc.） and the ENSO event clearly showed that they had significant impacts on the precipitation and temperature in Yangtze river basin.Most El Nino events or years were warmer and drier with an increased probability of drought.Most La Nina events or years were cooler and wetter with an increased probability of flooding.The whole basin flood disasters happened twice during the past 60 years,both of which occurred in the years transiting from El Nino events to La Nina events.El Nino had more significant and stronger influences on the climate than did La Nina.The meteorological conditions of the ENSO event during 2009—2010 was similar to those of 1998 during which a huge flood occurred.During 2010-2011 and the ensuing transition from the El Nino event to the La Nina event,it is more likely for the whole basin flooding to occur.For better preparedness,weather monitoring and prevention measures must be strengthened.关键词
ENSO/长江流域/降水量/温度/气象灾害Key words
ENSO/the Yangtze River basin/precipitation/temperature/meteorological disaster分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
张冲,赵景波..厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对长江流域气候的影响研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(3):1-6,11,7.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学重大研究项目“西北典型地区水环境” （）
中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目 （）
