中国电机工程学报2011，Vol.31Issue(22)：64-72,9.
极值负荷及其出现时刻的概率化预测
Short Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Magnitude and Timing of Extreme Load
摘要
Abstract
As the foundation of system daily scheduling and operations, current deterministic forecasting algorithm of the magnitude and timing of extreme load is not satisfactory. Probabilistic forecasting is an effective way to reduce the risk of inaccurate forecasting of extreme load. This paper took peak load as an example, analyzed the multi sub-peaks characteristic of load curve, studied the statistical features of the peak load magnitude and timing, established the regression model between peak load occurrence time and sunset time; based on sorted statistics of peak load daily increments by weeks and seasons, the paper forecasted the probabilistic density functions （PDF） of sub-peak load magnitudes, calculated the PDF of the peak load magnitude via sequence operation theories, forecasted the timing PDF employing total probability formula. Method proposed in this paper has been applied to a city in North China and the results prove the effectiveness of this method.关键词
电力系统/短期负荷预测/母线负荷预测/序列运算理论/极值负荷/出现时刻Key words
power systems/short term forecasting/bus load forecasting/sequence operation theory/extreme load/occurrence time分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陈新宇,康重庆,陈敏杰..极值负荷及其出现时刻的概率化预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(22):64-72,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51077077,50777031). （）
