大连理工大学学报2011，Vol.51Issue(4)：493-497,5.
基于改进灰色模型的能源消费预测研究
Study of energy consumption prediction based on improved grey model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the premise of the first-order cumulated generating series with the character of exponential growth,the background value of grey model is improved by the predictor-correcting technique to enhance the prediction precision of grey model.The numerical experimental results show that the precision and adaptability of the grey model are improved effectively.Finally,energy demand is predicted up to 2015 using the improved model coupling with the equal dimension rolling mechanism.The forecasting result indicates that energy demand will reach up to 3.19 billion tons of coal equivalent（BTCE） in 2010 and 3.63 BTCE in 2015,respectively,and it will present the huge challenge in terms of the safety of energy supply.关键词
预估-校正技术/背景值/灰色模型/能源消费Key words
predictor-correcting technique/background value/grey model/energy consumption分类
自科综合引用本文复制引用
穆海林,王文超,宁亚东,李刚..基于改进灰色模型的能源消费预测研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2011,51(4):493-497,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目 （）
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目 （）
秦皇岛市社科联资助项目 （）
