沙漠与绿洲气象2011，Vol.5Issue(2)：23-27,5.
不同插值算法对GRAPES模式在乌鲁木齐地区的降水分级检验比较
Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Results in Different Grades with Three Interpolation Algorithms in GRAPES Model in Urumqi Area
摘要
Abstract
This paper compared and verified the 24 h and 48h precipitation forecast abilities of different grades by three plane interpolation algorithms with the precipitation forecast field data of GRAPES model in Urumqi area. Generally, the 24 -hour forecast was better than 48 hours'.Through different interpolation algorithm, the precipitation forecast capabilities maintained at the same level or improved in some degrees. The difference of interpolation algorithm had little influence on the accumulated precipitation between O.lmm and lOmm as well as the that in extreme arid region. However, when the cumulative precipitation was more than lOmm, compared with those stations remaining the original level with the optimum interpolation method, the precipitation forecasting capacities for these stations calculated with the Gaussian interpolation algorithm improved 5 to 7 times, and the TS scores of these stations also showed better forecast results. The precipitation forecasting ability of the least square distances advanced even larger, about 10 times,but the forecast effect declined, particularly when the precipitation was no less than 10 mm no more than 25mm. Under this situation, the TS score decreased a little, and the forecast results of fitting accuracy rate were higher than that of Gaussian interpolation algorithm.关键词
插值算法/GRAPES/降水/检验Key words
interpolation algorithm/ GRAPES/ precipition/ verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄成荣,贾丽红,汤浩,蒋军..不同插值算法对GRAPES模式在乌鲁木齐地区的降水分级检验比较[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2011,5(2):23-27,5.
