安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(16)：10017-10018,10024,3.
基于马尔柯夫模型的南宁市土地利用变化预测
Land Use Change Prediction in Nanning City Based on Markov Chain Model
邹琳 1甄辉2
作者信息
- 1. 广东省地质测绘院,广东,广州,510800
- 2. 中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京,100872
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Average transition probability matrix of land use structure in Nanning City has been calculated based on its land use change data from 19945 to 2000, this paper adopts Markov Chain, simulating and forecasting land use structure in 2003, the result is that value of simulation is identical to the actual condition, which tells us that using Markov Theory to forecast land structure is feasible. Then, the very model is applied to forecast the change of future land structure in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 in Nanning. The conclusions show that in the future 20 years, cultivated land will decrease, garden land will have substantial increase and forest land will decrease. In this period, construction land will develop fast, unused land will decrease and the land usage ratio will increase.关键词
土地利用变化/马尔柯夫模型/南宁市Key words
Land use change/ Markov Chain Model/ Nanning City分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
邹琳,甄辉..基于马尔柯夫模型的南宁市土地利用变化预测[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(16):10017-10018,10024,3.
