中国电力2011，Vol.44Issue(7)：21-25,5.
自组织临界性与大停电事故预测
Self-organized criticality and power system blackouts prediction
摘要
Abstract
Based on the study of power system self-organized criticality (SOC) model and the power-law of the power system blackouts, the theoretical meaning of SOC is discussed from the physics standpoint. The SOC model provides reasonable theiuritical basis to future accidents prediction by using limited history data in power system blackout risk analysis. The focus of power system SOC model is not a certain blackout, but accident group consists of many blackouts. The key point of power system SOC model is trying to explain the universal rules of accident group, not clarifying the rule of a specific blackout. Although SOC is a simple model, it plays an important role in not only reminding the possibility of the blackouts prediction from the physics standpoint, but also revealing the value of understanding the complex blackouts phenomenon through simple physic model.关键词
自组织临界性/电力系统/大停电/预测Key words
self-organized criticality/ power system/ blackouts/ prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
于群,郭剑波..自组织临界性与大停电事故预测[J].中国电力,2011,44(7):21-25,5.基金项目
国家电网公司科技资助项目(基于复杂系统理论的大电网安全稳定性研究) （基于复杂系统理论的大电网安全稳定性研究）
国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产重大事故防治关键技术重点科技资助项目(10-052) （10-052）
