中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(7)：7-12,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.07.002
中国工业化、城市化进程中的能源需求预测与分析
China Energy Demand Forecast and Analysis in the Process of Industrialization and Urbanization
摘要
Abstract
In order to obtain reliable Chinese energy demand forecast, this paper introduces some important factors such as urbanization and industrialization, and makes use of the advantages of Support Vector Regression(SVR) in the prediction of time series, decides the set of input vectors, and output vectors, and then establishes the model of prediction of energy demand by SVR. This paper gives policy choice through modeling and simulating the related data of energy demand from 1985 to 2009, forecasting Chinese energy demand from 2010 to 2020 and simulating the evolution of energy demand under different growth of explanatory variables. Hie results show that the Chinese economy which is developing with a high speed, and the advancement of industrialization and urbanization have caused great impact on energy demand, and energy demand will be 4. 53 billion tons of standard coal by 2020. And the greater the economic growth rate, the greater the energy demand. The result implication from the simulation shows that the industrial structure is also one of the important influencing factors of energy demand, and adjustment of industrial structure, even very small adjustment, would greatly impact energy demand. We find that the recent rapid growth of energy demand in China mainly comes from its accelerating process of urbanization and the industrial characteristics that required have appeared in a rapid urbanization process. The higher the rates of urbanization, the greater energy demand, and demand for energy is rigid. Urbanization is also one of the important influencing factors of energy demand.关键词
能源需求/城市化/工业化/支持向量回归机Key words
energy demand/urbanization/industrialization/support vector regression分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
孙涵,成金华..中国工业化、城市化进程中的能源需求预测与分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7):7-12,6.基金项目
中国地质大学(武汉)优秀青年教师特色学科团队项目(编号:CUG090113) （武汉）
教育部人文社科青年项目(编号:10YJC790071). （编号:10YJC790071）
