中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(7)：73-79,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.07.013
2020年中国低碳经济发展前景研究
Research on Development of China' s Low-Carbon Economy in 2020
摘要
Abstract
Various factors influence the development of low carbon economy in China , so it is meaningful to discriminate them. Through an indicator system composed of factors impeding the development of low-carbon economy in China, this paper establishes structural self-interaction matrix by graph theory, obtains the hierarchy relationship among each influencing factor based on Boolean operation, and determines the main factors affecting low-carbon economic development in China: rough-type economic development, weak awareness of low - carbon and lack of trained manpower. Based on the critical barrier factors, the paper forecasts the development levels of low-carbon economy in China by 2020 in basic scenario, low-carbon scenario and frustrated scenario respectively. The results indicate that the energy demand and carbon emissions in future are very likely to fluctuate in a large range. Assuming the successful implementation of low-carbon economy, the aggregate energy consumption in 2020 will be approximately 4. 1 billion tons of standard coal, and CO2 emission is 2. 3 billion tons of carbon equivalents. In addition, coal accounts for 60. 5% of primary energy demand while petroleum, natural gas, nuclear power and hydropower account for 18. 4% , 7. 5% , 3. 3% , and 8. 5% respectively. Other new energies take the balance share of 2. 1%. In contrast, how to reduce the proportion of secondary industry, especially high energy-consuming industries, mainly depends on the improvement of energy-saving technology. With the improvement of the living standards, the amount of energy consumption in the daily life is rising continuously. Therefore, enhancing residents' awareness of low-carbon plays a vital role in decreasing energy demand and carbon emissions in their daily life. Therefore, the scenario simulation has obtained reasonable results according to the hierarchical relationship of the barriers, and may provide evidence and recommendations for low-carbon economy development in China.关键词
低碳经济/解释结构模型/情景分析/LEAP模型/发展策略Key words
low-carbon economy/interpretive structural modeling/scenario analysis/LEAP model/development strategies分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘朝,赵涛..2020年中国低碳经济发展前景研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7):73-79,7.基金项目
天津大学自主创新基金(编号:60304002). （编号:60304002）
