林业科学2011，Vol.47Issue(6)：77-87,11.
落叶松云冷杉林矩阵生长模型及多目标经营模拟
Matrix Growth Model and Harvest Scenario Simulation for Multiple Uses of Larch-Spruce-Fir Forests
摘要
Abstract
Multiple-species nonlinear matrix growth model was developed for larch-spruce-fir forests using 20 long-term permanent plots with 5-year period observations in Jingouling Forest Farm, Wangqing Forestry Bureau, Jilin Province, northeastern China. We found that mortality, upgrowth and ingrowth probability was significantly affected by medium of diameter class, stand basal area, biodiversity in terms of tree species and size, number of trees in minimum diameter class and elevation. The parameters of upgrowth, mortality and ingrowth models are estimated through ordinary least square ( OLS ) method and seemingly unrelated linear regression ( SUR) , but the differences in parameter estimate values between them were not significant. The model was validated in short term by comparing the observed with predicted number of trees in each diameter class and species group, and was statistically reasonable and subsequently was applied to predict timber yield, tree species diversity, tree size diversity, and aboveground carbon storage under 13 management scenarios in 50 years. The three single objectives are contradictory and should be compromised with the framework of multiple use management. The simulation results showed that the scenario with long cutting cycle (IS years) and low intensity (5 percent volume) could meet the needs of timber yield, protecting biodiversity and increasing carbon stock simultaneously. The simulation demonstrated that multiple objectives could be realized through reasonable forest management, and matrix model is a valuable tool for simulations of forest management scenarios.关键词
落叶松云冷杉林/矩阵生长模型/树种和大小多样性/地上碳贮量/采伐方案Key words
larch-spruce-fir forests/ matrix growth model/ tree species and size diversity/ above-ground carbon storage/ harvest scenario分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
向玮,雷相东,洪玲霞,孙建军,王培珍..落叶松云冷杉林矩阵生长模型及多目标经营模拟[J].林业科学,2011,47(6):77-87,11.基金项目
国家“十一五”科技支撑课题(2006BAD03A0802)和国家自然科学基金项目(30371157)的部分内容. （2006BAD03A0802）
