水科学进展2011，Vol.22Issue(4)：455-461,7.DOI:32.1309.P.20110709.1619.009
气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征
Spatiotemporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in the Weihe River basin under future climate change
摘要
Abstract
The parameters in the temperature-based Hargreaves method for the estimation of potential evapotranspira-tion (Etp) are calibrated by the FAO Penman-Monteith method and daily data during the period 1959-2008 at 20 meteorological stations in the Weihe River basin. To study the impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration, the projected daily maximum and minimum air temperature ( Tmax/Tmin) of HadCM3 GCM under A2 and B2 scenarios are first downscaled onto local meteorological stations using the statistical downscaling model ( SDSM) . Using the calibrated Hargreaves method, the future Etp, Tmax and Tmin time series under A2 and B2 scenarios can then be calculated. The spatiotemporal characteristics of these series are analyzed. Results show that the calibrated Hargreaves method reproduces well the observed potential evapotranspiration at each of the 20 meteorological stations; upward trends in daily Tmax and Tmin and annual ETP could be significant compared to that of the baseline period 1961-1990 under both scenarios; the increase in meteorological variables would be greater under A2 than B2; over different regions of the Wei River basin, the annual Etp could be gradually increasing for the three future periods, the 2010 -2039, the 2040 - 2069 and the 2070 - 2099; and the greatest increase of Etp could be expected in the south bank of the basin, while the lowest increase might be found in the north bank.关键词
潜在蒸散量/气候变化/大气环流模式/渭河Key words
potential evapotranspiration/ climate change/ general circulation model/ Weihe River分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
左德鹏,徐宗学,李景玉,刘兆飞..气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征[J].水科学进展,2011,22(4):455-461,7.基金项目
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项资助项目(2009ZX07212-002-003) （2009ZX07212-002-003）
科技部中瑞合作资助项目(2009DFA22980) （2009DFA22980）
