水科学进展2011，Vol.22Issue(4)：462-469,8.DOI:32.1309.P.20110709.1619.008
IPCC AR4气候情景下长江流域径流预测
Runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios
摘要
Abstract
The performance of twenty-two General Circulation Models ( GCMs) in simulating precipitation and temperature are evaluated and validated in the Yangtze River basin. Simulations of these GCMs were used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report ( AR4 ). The Bjerknes Center for Climate Research ( BCCR) Bergen Climate Model ( BCM ) 2.0, or BCCR _ BCM2. 0, and other six GCMs stand out from the twenty-two evaluated GCMs. Using an artificial neural network and climate change projections from the selected seven GCMs under A1B, A2 and Bl scenarios, the hydrological response to future climate change in the Yangtze River basin is studied. The projective on the subject is presented. The result shows that there could be a decreasing trend in the mean annual streamflow in the future. At the Yichang station, a dry year condition would be likely to become more common in a warmer world. The reduction of mean annual streamflow could reach as much as 520 m /s for dry years, while such a reduction would be 250 m /s for a normal year at the Datong station. The decrease in available water could be a big challenge to the practice of water allocation and management in the western and central routes of the South-to-North Diversion project. The mean monthly streamflow would be projected to be increasing during January to June, while, the opposite should be true during the second half of the year. At Yichang and Datong, the streamflow increases would be 29. 6 % and 13.8% during January to June and decreases could reach as much as - 18. 2% and -11% during the second half of the year, respectively. The variation of streamflow could be expected to be larger at Yichang than at Datong. During flooding seasons, there would be a decrease of -8.5 % in Yichang streamflow, and a slight increase for other reasons. In contrast, the Datong streamflow would have a 2.3% increase during flooding seasons, and a slight decrease in non-flooding seasons.关键词
IPCC AR4/BP模型/气候变化/径流预测/长江流域Key words
IPCC AR4/ BP model/ climate change/ runoff prediction/ Yangtze River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
鞠琴,郝振纯,余钟波,徐海卿,江微娟,郝洁..IPCC AR4气候情景下长江流域径流预测[J].水科学进展,2011,22(4):462-469,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2010CB951101) （973）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40830639 （）
50879016) （）
