气象与环境学报2011，Vol.27Issue(3)：45-50,6.
1960-2009年汉中市气候变化特征及未来趋势
Characteristics of climatic change from 1960 to 2009 and its future trend in Hanzhong, Shaanxi province
摘要
Abstract
Using methods of a linear regression analysis, a Mann-Kendall test and a rescaled range analysis (R/S), the characteristics of air temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration from 1960 to 2009 and their future trends in Hanzhong were analyzed. The results show that the mean annual temperature increases with 0.14t per decade in the recent SO years,and an abrupt change occurs in 1997. Hurst index of the annual mean temperature reaches 0.94, and it suggests that the future air temperature change is also in an increasing trend. Precipitation decreases with -28.45 mm per decade and fluctuates,while an abrupt change is not significant. Hurst index of precipitation is 0.75 ,and it suggests that the future precipitation would decrease successively. Annual sunshine duration decreases in the past 50 years with -56.42 hours per decade,and an abrupt change appears during 1979-1980. Hurst index of sunshine duration is 0.91 ,and it suggests that the future annual sunshine duration would decreases successively.关键词
气候变化；Mann-Kendall检验；R/S分析；汉中市Key words
Climate change/ Mann-Kendall test/ Rescaled range (R/S) analysis/ Hanzhong分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘阳,延军平,杜继稳..1960-2009年汉中市气候变化特征及未来趋势[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(3):45-50,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金“秦岭南北全球变化适应度评价及可持续发展模式选择”(40871052)资助。 （40871052）
