安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(20)：12342-12344,12360,4.
营口地区一次暴雨过程中的预报失误分析
Analysis of an Unsuccessful Forecast for a Heavy Rainfall Event in Yingkou
何晓东 1赵晓川 1张红宇 2王贵军1
作者信息
- 1. 辽宁省营口市气象台,辽宁,营口,115001
- 2. 辽宁省水文水资源勘测局营口分局,辽宁,营口,115003
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The reason for the unsuccessful forecast of a heavy rainfall event in Yingkou was analyzed.[Method] Based on the precipitation data observed by automatic weather stations and MIGAPS data,a heavy rainfall Event was studied in Yingkou from 19 July to 21 July in 2010.Then the analysis of an unsuccessful forecasting for the heavy rainfall on 21 July was illustrated by Cinrad-sa data,satellite data and numerical forecast products.[Result] The main reason for the unsuccessful forecast was that the duration of the rainfall was long and inceonsecutive,The distribution was uncven.Strong precipitation on 21st was different from the one in previous two durations,It was regional short term strong precipitation.And the forecast difficulty was large;the numerical forecast was unstable and erroneous;strong precipitation ocurred in the night on 20th,which was shortly before the strong precipitation in the evening of 21st.This would easily confuse the reporter.Besides,the short term stillness of radar and cloud during this time would form certain disturbance.The focus of rainstorm forecast should based on the numerical forecast instead of element forecast;insisting on situation analysis and taking element judgment as auxiliary;as for strong precipitation forecast,there was large error in numerical forecast and can not be relied,Reporter should report the correct on hased on experience,[Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of rainstorm.关键词
暴雨/预报失误分析/预报着眼点/营口地区Key words
Heavy rainfall/Analysis of unsuccessful forecasting/Forecast starting points/Yingkou分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
何晓东,赵晓川,张红宇,王贵军..营口地区一次暴雨过程中的预报失误分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(20):12342-12344,12360,4.
