摘要
Abstract
On the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population, weighted average growth model, regression forecast model and GM(1,1)forecast model, taking Gushi County in Henan Province as an example, according to the statistics of population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2007, we establish four models to conduct fitting on population change respectively, and meanwhile, we predict population scale from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness test on the population scale. The test results show that the preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is not high, and the preciseness of forecast results of weighted average growth model is not scientific when the total scale of population is unstable. The results of GM (1,1) forecast model and regression forecast model largely conform to the actual data, so we can take the mean of the two as the final forecast result.关键词
土地利用规划/人口预测模型/回归预测模型/GM(1/1)灰色预测模型Key words
Planning of land use/ Population forecast model/ Regression forecast model/ GM (1,1) grey forest model分类
管理科学
