华侨大学学报（自然科学版）2011，Vol.32Issue(5)：511-514,4.
基于ARIMA模型的福州市雷暴日趋势分析
Fuzhou Thunderstorm Days Trend Analysis by the ARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
Paper is based on the analysis of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, leveraging historical thunderstorm day data of Fuzhou which was collected from year 1961 to 2006 to forecast the trend of thunderstorm day by stability analysis, differential treatment, autocorrelation, partial and autocorrelation coefficient calculation and drawing, ARIMA modeling, parameter estimation, hypothesis testing and predictions. Applying ARIMA model in the thunderstorm day trend analysis, the result indicates that ARIMA model has a better short-term prediction and can be applied in the actual forecast of thunderstorm days.关键词
雷暴日/差分自回归移动平均模型/预测/短期/福州市Key words
thunderstorm day/ auto-regressive integrated moving average model/ forecast} short term/ Fuzhou City分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
刘隽,张烨方,黄岩彬..基于ARIMA模型的福州市雷暴日趋势分析[J].华侨大学学报（自然科学版）,2011,32(5):511-514,4.基金项目
福建省福州市科技计划项目(2008-S-87) （2008-S-87）
