安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(21)：13226-13227,13229,3.
ARIMA模型在贵州省农产品价格预测中的应用——以辣椒为例
The Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of the Price of Agricultural Products in Guizhou
摘要
Abstract
Because the seasonal nature of monthly price of hot pepper in Guizhou Province, therefore, taking the case of monthly price of hotpepper in Guizhou Province from January in 2007 to December in 2010, seasonal decomposition method was used to reject the new sequenceformed by seasonal factors, nonstationary time series ARIMA(p,d,q) Model was constructed to predict the monthly price of hot pepper. Theresults indicated that the ARIMA (1,1,1) Model could predict the peppers price trend, and the difference between the forecast price and theactual price was more or less than 9%. The empirical results indicated the predictability and feasibility of seasonal decomposition method ofARIMA Model in the prediction of the price of agricultural products in Guizhou Province.关键词
贵州省/农产品价格/季节分解/价格预测/APIMA模型Key words
Guizhou Province/The price of agricultural products/Seasonal decomposition/The prediction of price/Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
韩雯..ARIMA模型在贵州省农产品价格预测中的应用——以辣椒为例[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(21):13226-13227,13229,3.基金项目
贵州省软科学研究项目[黔科合体R字(2010)LKC2013号]. （2010）
