安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(24)：15093-15095,15122,4.
基于WOFOST模型的黑龙江省水稻产量动态预报研究
Study on Dynamic Yield Forecasting of Rice Based on WOFOST Model in Heilongjiang Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the facts that the climate wanning, rice grow wider, grow bourn move to the north of Heilongjiang Province, annual average temperature from 1961 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province was mutably verified by using Mann-Kendall statistics and verification methods, and take climate wanning1 s mutating point as the time node, used the Heilongjiang Province rice growth observed data (development period, biomass, grow variety, ripe type) and contemporary meteorological data, combined with local actual grow situation, divides the WOFOST model rice being suitable area, improved original growth parameter, carried out WOFOST model dynamic application on Heilongjiang Province rice growth simulation. At the same time, discussed the method of rice yield dynamic forecast by using WOFOST model, set up different perio d* s relating statistic model between rice simulating biomass and true yield, carried out WOFOST model application on rice yield dynamic forecast. Through verifying history forecast from 1997 to 2006 and forecast experiment from 2007 to 2008, the results indicated that average accuracy rate of rice history forecast verification yield per unit area on June 30, July 31 and August 31 are 96% , 93% , 94% respectively, average accuracy rate of the forecast experiment yield per unit area are 93% , 95% and 95% respectively; the rice output dynamic and the quota forecast were realized, that may carry on the service application.关键词
WOFOST模型/气候变暖/水稻/动态预报/黑龙江省Key words
WOFOST model/ Climate warming/ Rice/ Dynamic forecast/ Heilongjiang Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杜春英,李秀芬,王晨轶,王萍,韩俊杰..基于WOFOST模型的黑龙江省水稻产量动态预报研究[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(24):15093-15095,15122,4.基金项目
公益性(气象)行业专项(GYHY200906021) （气象）
中国气象局2009年业务建设项目. （）
