水力发电2011，Vol.37Issue(9)：13-17,5.
通过流量放大减小水文模拟与预报不确定性的应用研究
Research and Application of the Discharge Amplification Method in Reducing Uncertainty of Hydrological Modeling Estimation and Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Taking the Dongwan Watershed in a semi-arid area as a case, the effects of runoff coefficient in hydrological modeling estimation and forecast are analyzed by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method based on TOPMODEL for enhancing the simulation accuracy in the catchments with a lower runoff coefficient and reducing the uncertainty of hydrological modeling estimation and forecast. The results show that the simulation accuracy will be improved with the increase of runoff coefficient, and reached a peak when runoff coefficient is about 0.5 and then gradually decreased. By using this method, the hydrological estimation for Dongwan Watershed is greatly improved.关键词
径流系数/流量放大/不确定性/GLUE方法/TOPMODELKey words
runoff coefficient/ discharge amplification/ uncertainty/ GLUE/ TOPMODEL分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
黄淑娴,林凯荣,刘祖发..通过流量放大减小水文模拟与预报不确定性的应用研究[J].水力发电,2011,37(9):13-17,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50809078、50839005) （50809078、50839005）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3161395) （3161395）
