中国农业科学2011，Vol.44Issue(17)：3666-3675,10.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.17.020
农产品市场价格短期预测研究进展
Advances in Research of Short-Term Forecasting Methods of Agricultural Product Price
摘要
Abstract
This paper reviewed the progress in the theories, methods and their application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices at home and abroad. Advantages and disadvantages of the existing research methods were comparatively analyzed and the future research directions were prospected. A conclusion drawn from the research was that the quantitative forecasting method could be divided into econometric forecasting, statistics forecasting, intelligent analysis and combination model as the wide application of mathematical statistics, econometrics, fuzzy mathematics and artificial neural network. In the future, the development of short-term forecasting methods of agricultural product prices will show these characteristics: quantitative analysis will be dominant and large-scale complex of intelligent hybrid model will be increased. Moreover, quantile regression model will be introduced as a new application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices.关键词
农产品市场/市场价格/短期预测/预测方法Key words
agricultural market/ market price/ short-term forecasting/ forecasting method引用本文复制引用
许世卫,李哲敏,李干琼,董晓霞..农产品市场价格短期预测研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(17):3666-3675,10.基金项目
“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2009BADA9B01)、农业部“948”项目(2011-Z5)、农业部市场司“农业信息预警”专项 （2009BADA9B01）
