中国油料作物学报2011，Vol.33Issue(4)：402-408,7.
中国花生黄曲霉毒素风险评估中膳食暴露非参数概率评估方法
Non-parametric probability assessment of risk evaluation on dietary exposure to Chinese peanut aflatoxins
摘要
Abstract
Based on 12 855 aflatoxins data from 2 571 peanut samples of 155 counties in 13 provinces in 2009 and 2010, and according to the dietary consumption data in the Chinese resident nutrition and health survey reports in 2002 and 2004, a non - parametric probability assessment model was built using Monte Carlo simulation and Bootstrap sampling methods. In the model, dietary aflatoxins exposure distributions were constructed and quartiles of corresponding statistics were calculated. Results showed that children aged 2 to 5, adults aged 18 to 45 from cities or the middle - income aged 18 to 45 were the high aflatoxins exposure populations. Their median values of high exposure (P97.5) were 1.342ng ? Kg-1 ? D-1 0.695ng ? Kg-1 ? D-1 and 0.874 and with the quartiles of P97.5 as 0.151ng ? Kg-1 ? D-1, 0.078ng ? Kg-1 ? D-1 and 0.086ng ? Kg-1 ? D-1 .respectively. Compared to point estimate, present assessment was more accurate on variability and uncertainty in quality risk assessments.关键词
花生/黄曲霉毒素/非参数概率模型/膳食暴露/风险评估Key words
Peanut/ Aflatoxins/ Non - parametric probability assessment model/ Dietary exposure/ Risk assessment分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
丁小霞,李培武,白艺珍,周海燕,印南日..中国花生黄曲霉毒素风险评估中膳食暴露非参数概率评估方法[J].中国油料作物学报,2011,33(4):402-408,7.基金项目
无公害农产品质量安全监测项目(2010252),中国农业科学院油料作物研究所所长基金(1610172011013) （2010252）
