气候变化研究进展2011，Vol.7Issue(5)：363-368,6.
气候变化风险研究的初步探讨
Primary Study on the Theories and Methods of Research on Climate Change Risk
摘要
Abstract
This paper discusses the theories and methods of climate change risk study for carrying out basis for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damaging and relativity are the major features of tlimate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps including risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We also gave out the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study of China's floods risk was taken to give an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we pointed out some main aspects of climate change risk research including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, risk management and so on.关键词
气候变化/风险评估/风险管理/不确定性Key words
climate change/risk assessment/risk management/uncertainty分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴绍洪,潘韬,贺山峰..气候变化风险研究的初步探讨[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(5):363-368,6.基金项目
国家“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD20B05,2007BAC03A02) （2006BAD20B05,2007BAC03A02）
