解放军医学杂志2011，Vol.36Issue(11)：1223-1225,3.
军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病预测效果的分析
Analysis of the prediction validity of the military mental disorder prediction scale on the mental disorder of new recruits
魏红辉 1张理义 2余海鹰 2汪广剑 2陈方斌 2高志勤 2熊富先 3袁水平3
作者信息
- 1. 212013 江苏镇江 江苏大学临床医学院
- 2. 213003 江苏常州 解放军102医院全军心理疾病防治中心
- 3. 353000 福建南平 解放军92医院
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To examine the prediction validity of the Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale on the mental disorder of new recruits. Methods The present study surveyed 64356 new recruits from 2007 to 2009 with the Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale. High-risk recruits predicted as positive by the Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale were screened out and kept track of to observe the prediction validity on the general incidence rate of mental disorder in the army environment and the incidence rate at different periods (1 month to 6 months, 7 months to 12 months, and more than 12 months). The present study designated new recruits with initial onset of mental disorder within three years as the mental disorder group and compared them with the contrast group of healthy new recruits at the same period to examine the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction by the Mental Disorder Prediction Scale. Then, the study adopted Chi-square test to analyze the relationship between six factors (family medical history, past medical history, growth experience, introversion, stressor, poor metal defense, and social support) and the prediction of the mental disorder of new recruits. Results Up to 421 cases are predicted by the scale as positive among 64356 new recruits, among whom 156 have mental disorder. As predicted by the scale, the general incidence rate of recruits is 37. 1% , and the incidence rate is 24. 0% within 1 month to 6 months, 9. 7% within 7 months to 12 months, and 3. 6% after 12 months. The prediction sensitivity of mental disorder is 95. 71%, and the specificity is 87. 73%. The Chi-square test shows that family medical history and past medical history (OR=3.17, P<0. 05) , introversion (OR=4. 42, P<0. 05), and poor mental defense (OR=2. 91, P<0. 05) are contributive factors to the mental disorder of new recruits. Conclusions The Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale has better prediction validity for the mental disorder of new recruits. Family medical record, past medical record, introversion, and poor mental defense are contributive factors to the mental disorder of new recruits, which shall be given attention during the mental disorder screening of new recruits.关键词
军事人员/精神疾病/发病率/危险因素Key words
military personnel/ psychotic disorders/ incidence/ risk factors分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
魏红辉,张理义,余海鹰,汪广剑,陈方斌,高志勤,熊富先,袁水平..军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病预测效果的分析[J].解放军医学杂志,2011,36(11):1223-1225,3.
