中国人兽共患病学报2011，Vol.27Issue(11)：1047-1050,4.
应用ARIMA模型预测福建省戊型肝炎疫情
Application on ARIMA model for epidemic forecasting of hepatitis E in Fujian Province
谢忠杭 1欧剑鸣 1张莹珍 1黄文龙 1王灵岚1
作者信息
- 1. 福建省疾病预防控制中心,福州 350001
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to construct the ARIMA model for forecasting and warning the monthly cases of hepatitis E in Fujian Province, the time series of monthly cases of hepatitis E from 2004 to 2010 in Fujian Province collected by Disease Information Reporting System were analyzed by the ARIMA of SAS 9. 0. Rersult indicated the time series had an annual seasonal effect, and became stable. And non-white noise series after 12-lag differences was taken. The ARIMA(0,0,0) (0 ,1,1 )12 model was the relative by optimum fitting model. Therefore, fitting a relatively optimum model for hepatitis E is practical for forecasting and warning.关键词
戊型肝炎/预测/时间序列/ARIMA模型/网络直报Key words
Hepatitis E/ prediction/ time series/ ARIMA model/ internet-based reporting分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
谢忠杭,欧剑鸣,张莹珍,黄文龙,王灵岚..应用ARIMA模型预测福建省戊型肝炎疫情[J].中国人兽共患病学报,2011,27(11):1047-1050,4.
