中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(10)：147-152,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.10.022
中国交通基础设施与经济增长的关系实证
An Empirical Research on the Relationship Between Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China
摘要
Abstract
Transport infrastructure (TI) makes important contribution to economic growth through multiplier effect, travel effect and external effect, and at the same time the economic growth leads the planning and provides material support to the construction of TI. In this paper, the statistical data from 1952 to 2006 in China, including CDP as the index of economy and the operation length and freight traffic of the railway and road as index of TI, are used. Based on cointegration test and Granger casualty test, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between TT and economic growth, and the former is the latter's Granger cause, but the reverse is not true. A regression model of Cobb-Douglas production function is built and analyzed with applying Principle Regression Method to avoid the collinearity effect, and the results show that TI significantly promotes economic growth and road has higher contribution rate than railway. The change of economic growth style in 1978 is also considered with Dummy Variable Method, and the result shows that before and after the year 1978, the contribution rates are the same level in statistics.关键词
交通基础设施/经济增长/协整检验/Granger因果检验/主成分回归Key words
transport infrastructure/ economic growth/ cointegration test/ Granger casualty test/ principle regression分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杨帆,韩传峰..中国交通基础设施与经济增长的关系实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(10):147-152,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70871093 （）
71040010). （）
