水产学报2011，Vol.35Issue(10)：1572-1581,10.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1231.2011.17410
基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理
Stock assessment and management of Ommartrephes bartramii by using a Bayesian Schaefer model in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean
摘要
Abstract
The stock assessment and risk analysis of alternative management strategies for neon flying squid Ommartrephes bartramii were carried out by using a Bayesian Schaefer model,in which three conditions, I. E. uniform,normal and random prior assumptions,are considered. Comparing the prior distributions of model parameters(e. g. r,K and q) with the posterior distributions, they differed greatly under the scenario of uniform prior assumption, indicating that the data provide enough imformation for the value of model parameters. The estimated model parameters and reference points were similar under the scenarios of normal and random prior assumptions,but less than the values under the scenario of uniform prior assumption. The fishing mortalities and total catches from 1996 to 2004 were lower than reference points F0.1 and MSY under three proposed scenarios, indicating that O. bartramii is on an expected sustainable exploited level and it is not in the state of over-fishing and over-fished. A stochastic decision-making framework was developed to incorporate the uncertainties in both the estimates of current fishing mortality (Fcur) and stock biomass(Bcur) and limited reference points of Flim and Blim. The results of decision analysis indicated that under the same harvest rate,the catch and biomass in 2019 from the uniform assumption are highest,which are more than that eatimated from the other two asumptions, but there is the highest probability of the collapse of squid resources. It is concluded that the harvest rate of 0.3 appears to be the best management regulation and the MSY will attain at 130 thousand tons,which balance the desire for high yields and the healthy population.关键词
柔鱼/贝叶斯Schaefer模型/资源评估/管理策略/西北太平洋Key words
Ommartrephes bartramii/ Bayesian Schaefer model/ stock assessment/ management strategy/ Northwestern Pacific Ocean分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈新军,曹杰,刘必林,陆化杰,田思泉,马金..基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理[J].水产学报,2011,35(10):1572-1581,10.基金项目
教育部博士点基金(20093104110002) （20093104110002）
上海市曙光计划跟踪计划(08GG14) （08GG14）
上海市优秀学科带头人计划(10XD1402000) （10XD1402000）
国家“八六三”高技术研究发展计划(2007AA092201 （）
2007AA092202) （）
上海市重点学科(S030702) （S030702）
