中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(11)：56-60,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.11.010
山东省工业总产值与能源消耗量的协整关系
Analysis on Co-integration Relationship Between Industrial Output Value and Energy-consumption of Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
To examine the quantitative relationship between industrial development and energy consumption of Shandong Province, the paper studies the dynamic interactions relationship between industrial output value and energy consumption by empirical method based on co-integration test and error correction model. The spatial panel data of industrial value and energy-consumption of Shandong Province is adopted from 1990 to 2008. By using co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, some results are obtained that industrial output value and energy consumption of Shandong Province are co-integrated and have a longtime equilibrium. There is a bi-directional Granger causality relationship between industrial output value and energy consumption, an unidirectional causality between industrial output value and raw coal consumption. An error correction model is also established to correct short-term fluctuations by long-range errors. It can reveal the dynamic equilibrium relationship between these time series. The conclusion of the study is that industrial economy of Shandong Province develops rapidly with the high speed consumption of natural energy, and raw coal is the leading one of whole energy consumption in Shandong Province. Therefore, optimizing industrial energy consumption structure is the direction of economic development of Shandong Province.关键词
工业总产值/能源消耗/协整检验/格兰杰原因Key words
industry output value/energy-consumption/co-integration test/Granger causality分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
董会忠,綦振法,史成东..山东省工业总产值与能源消耗量的协整关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):56-60,5.基金项目
山东省科技发展计划(软科学部分)项目“能源约束下山东省钢铁工业结构调整与优化对策研究”(编号:2010RKGB3038) （软科学部分）
山东省软科学研究计划项目“山东半岛制造业基地精益物流外包决策与物流服务商选择研究”(编号:2009RKA173). （编号:2009RKA173）
