中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(11)：33-37,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.11.006
中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析
Evolving Trend of Energy Efficiency in China: An R/S Fractal Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Although energy efficiency in China has improved over the last few decades, we still witnessed fluctuations in some years. This paper seeks to understand the evolving trend of energy efficiency at national and provincial levels through an R/S fractal analysis. In the analysis of the national trend, time-series energy efficiency data of 1978 - 2008 was used to compute the Hurst exponent and fractal dimensions. The results suggested a non-linear trend of evolution in the period, indicated by a fairly large fractal dimension value. The time-series data were then divided into five periods according to the China's " Five Year Plan" implemented in the past. Analytic results based on this divided dataset were explained with the help of historical facts associated with each of those " Five Year Plans". The provincial analyses employed a panel dataset consisting of annual energy efficiency data for 29 Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2008. A panel variable-coefficient model was established to detect the evolving trend of energy efficiency in each province. Based on the results, energy efficiency in all provinces except Hainan presents a persistent ascending trend. The H exponent value in six western provinces and three northeastern was much bigger than the national average, and this might have resulted from the implementation of several large-scale projects for the strategic development of the western and northeast regions in the past.关键词
能源效率/发展演变趋势/非线性分形理论/R/S分析Key words
energy efficiency/evolving trend/non-linear fractal theory/R/S analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
姜磊,季民河..中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):33-37,5.基金项目
中国知识创新溢出与可持续发展研究(编号:40671074). （编号:40671074）
