安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(31)：19468-19470,3.
青海牧区雪灾月尺度精细化直接预测方法研究
Studv on Monthly-scale Fine Direct Prediction Method of Snow Disaster in Qinghai Pastoral Areas
摘要
Abstract
By the statistics of the snow disasters occurred in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province during 1961 - 2008, regions where snow disasters occurred are divided into six sub-regions, for each sub-region, precipitation, air temperature and rainfall days during prophase period and precipitation, air temperature during current period as factors, based on ensuring the reliability greater than 0.1, factors of bigger correlation coefficient are determined. Using linear regression equation prediction model, space-partitioned and monthly-variational snow days as well as snow quantity in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province are predicted. According to " snowstorm standard ( DB63/T372 - 2001) in Qinghai" , early warming can be made of corresponding levels of the monthly scale snowstorm. By testing, the model has a relatively ideal prediction effect, and it is a fine direct method which is worthy of study and continuous improvement.关键词
雪灾/月尺度/精细化预测/青海牧区Key words
Snow disaster/Monthly-scale/ Fine prediction/Qinghai pastoral areas分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
杨延华,李林,陈晓光,时兴合,申红艳..青海牧区雪灾月尺度精细化直接预测方法研究[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(31):19468-19470,3.基金项目
国家重大科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B04-08) （2007BAC29B04-08）
青海省科技厅2008年项目“青海省重大气象灾害监测预警与应急响应” （）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906019). （气象）
