安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(28)：17631-17633,3.
基于时空回归模型的河南省粮食产量预测
Grain Yield Prediction of Henan Province Based on Spatio-temporal Regression Model
摘要
Abstract
By using correlation analysis method, regression analysis method and time sequence method, I combine time and space, to establish grain yield spatial-temporal regression prediction model of Henan Province and all prefecture-level cities. At first, I use the grain yield in prefecture-level cities of Henan in the year 2000 and 2005, to establish regression model, and then taking the grain yield in one year as independent variable, I predict the grain yield in the fifth year afterwards. Taking the dependent variable value as independent variable again, I predict the grain yield at an interval of the same years, and based on this, predict year by year forward until the year we need. The research shows that the grain yield of Henan Province in the year 2015 and 2020 is 59. 849 6 million t and 67.929 3 million t respectively, consistent with the research results of other scholars to some extent.关键词
时空回归模型/逐年移动预测/粮食产量/河南Key words
Spatio-temporal regression model/Moving prediction year by year/Grain yield/Henan Province分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘钦普..基于时空回归模型的河南省粮食产量预测[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(28):17631-17633,3.基金项目
国家自然基金项目(40901034) （40901034）
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(08SJD7900055). （08SJD7900055）
