安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(29)：18185-18187,3.
利用CI值进行衡阳晚稻产量预报方法研究
Study on Method for Predicting Hengyang Late Rice Yield by CI Value
肖媚 1毛宇 2陈涛 3黄卓禹4
作者信息
- 1. 兰州大学大气科学院,甘肃兰州730000
- 2. 湖南省娄底市气象局,湖南娄底417000
- 3. 湖南省宁乡县气象局,湖南宁乡410600
- 4. 湖南省衡阳市气象局,湖南衡阳421001
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Through analyzing relationship between late rice yield and comprehensive meteorological drought index CI in each county of Hengyang , by using SPSS software to eliminate variables which has weak relationship with predicted value, the regression model about CI value predicting late rice yield was established. Seeing from analysis of regression model, the correlation between Y and D, M increased except flood years, the regression equation is Y= 384. 187 +0. 508M. The model test showed that, sample residual comply with normal distribution; the distribution of residual scatter is random and uniform, and mostly fall in line between - 2 and 2; mean of normal curve is 0, standard deviation is 0.989, the regression fitting degree is high. In conclusion, mean deviation between result and actuality is 0.428% by using this model to predict late rice yield in each county in 2009.关键词
晚稻/综合气象干旱指数CI/产量预报Key words
Late rice/ Comprehensive meteorological drought index Cl/ Yield predicting分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
肖媚,毛宇,陈涛,黄卓禹..利用CI值进行衡阳晚稻产量预报方法研究[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(29):18185-18187,3.
