安徽农业科学Issue(7)：4254-4258,4262,6.
近51年鄂西山地降水变化特征及突变分析
Analysis on Precipitation Variation and Abrupt Change in Western Hubei Mountain during Recent 51 Years
摘要
Abstract
Based on the linear trend analysis,cumulative anomalies,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis,the monthly,seasonal and annual precipitation,rainfall days and extreme rainfall in Xuan'en were comprehensively analyzed from 1959 to 2009,the change features,abrupt change time and periodic oscillation of precipitation in West Hubei mountain during recent 51 years were discussed. The results showed that the annual precipitation in Western Hubei mountain decreased at a climatic tendency of -27.4 mm/10a from 1959 to 2009,which was mainly resulted from the reduction of precipitation in spring and autumn, especially in autumn,during which the climatic tendency was -30. 99 mm/10a,while in summer and winter, the precipitation exhibited an increasing trend. The days of heavy rain decreased from 1959 to 2009. The extreme precipitation events decreased at a climatic tendency of -0.033 d/10a,which occurred less than 4 days in a year. The abrupt change of precipitation occurred significantly in the whole year of 2008 ,the spring of 1966 ,the summer of 1982 and the fall of 1959 ,The characteristics of multi-time scales indicated that interdecadal scale were around 18 years,interannual time scale were 1-2 years and 7 -8 years. From the interdecadal scale, we found that the annual precipitation in Western Hubei mountain would decrease gradually and switch to a dry period in the near future.关键词
降水变化特征/倾向率/突变/小波变换Key words
Precipitation variation features/ Trend rate/ Abrupt change/ Wavelet transformation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨小华,杨军,骆亚军,熊守权,刘端阳..近51年鄂西山地降水变化特征及突变分析[J].安徽农业科学,2012,(7):4254-4258,4262,6.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906012). （气象）
