北京师范大学学报：自然科学版2011，Vol.47Issue(5)：493-501,9.
基于极值理论的中国台风降水分布不确定性分析
UNCERTAINTY OF CHINA TYPHOON RAINFALL PROBABILITY ESTIMATION WITH DIFFERENT EXTREME-VALUE MODELS
摘要
Abstract
Rainfall is a major typhoon hazard,causing direct economic loss.Rainfall may induce secondary disasters such as floods,landslides,and mudslides.Five extreme value models were used to simulate cumulative probability of typhoon rainfall in the present work,using Wenzhou station in Zhejiang province as an example,with the differences among the five models analyzed.Based on surface observed rainfall from 748 stations（1951—2005）,typhoon rainfall probability of 402 stations impacted by typhoons was calculated.Significance test showed that Weibull distribution was the best model to fit typhoon rainfall probability in China,though other models achieved relatively good performance also.Rainfall intensity difference or uncertainty caused by selecting different models was quantitatively mapped.关键词
台风降水/概率分布/极值理论/不确定性/中国Key words
typhoon rainfall/probability distribution/extreme value theory/uncertainty/China分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
石先武,方伟华,林伟,李颖..基于极值理论的中国台风降水分布不确定性分析[J].北京师范大学学报：自然科学版,2011,47(5):493-501,9.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划资助项目 （）
