电波科学学报2011，Vol.26Issue(6)：1141-1147,1228,8.
电离层总电子含量的短期预报方法的误差评估
Evaluation of the prediction errors from the method for the ionospheric TEC short-term forecasting in China region
摘要
Abstract
The prediction errors are statistically analyzed for the method of the ionospheric total electron content（TEC） short-term forecasting in China region.The results show that the prediction error rate gradually becomes larger from north to south China,and have the larger value in vernal and autumnal equinoxes.The diurnal variation of prediction errors has a single-peak at about 15：00.While the relative errors have the largest values in winter and the smallest values in summer,and exist two obvious peaks at around 8∶00 and 20∶00.Overall,the mean of the relative errors is about 12% with 1 hour in advance.At the same time,it can be found that the prediction error for the single station forecasting has larger proportion in the whole method by comparing it to the reconstruction error.Therefore,to improve the single station prediction is such an effective way to improve the accuracy of the whole method.In the meantime,it is necessary to increase and well distribute the GPS receiving stations.关键词
电离层TEC短期预报/单站预报/区域重构/预报误差Key words
ionospheric TEC/short-term forecasting/single station forecasting/reconstruction/prediction errors分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
武业文,刘瑞源,吴振森,张北辰,刘俊明..电离层总电子含量的短期预报方法的误差评估[J].电波科学学报,2011,26(6):1141-1147,1228,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目 （）
公益性行业（气象）科研专项 （）
国家电磁环境重点实验室项目 （）
国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金 （）
国家自然科学基金青年项目 （）
