电力系统及其自动化学报2012，Vol.24Issue(1)：151-155,5.
基于递归等权组合模型的中长期电力负荷预测
Medium-long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Recursive Right Combination Model
蒋燕 1王少杨 2封芸3
作者信息
- 1. 重庆电力高等专科学校,重庆400053
- 2. 重庆大学电气工程学院,重庆400044
- 3. 贵州电网公司,贵阳550002
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
For solving the problem that a single model can not take full advantage of data information and consider internal law of data fully, a recursive right combination forecasting model was proposed in the paper. The single model selection in recursive right combination forecasting model can be achieved through the gray correlation analysis, and the weights of the single model can be also solved through recursive right method, which can effectively considering the variation of predict quality of the single models. Finally, the forecast deviations of the recursive right combination forecasting model and the single models are compared through a prediction of maximum load for a region. The results indicated that recursive right combination forecasting model has lower error than the single models, and can effectively improve the power system load forecasting capability, accuracy and reliability.关键词
中长期负荷预测/回归模型/灰色模型/模糊模型/组合预测Key words
medium-long term load forecasting/ regression model/ gray model/ fuzzy model/ combination forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
蒋燕,王少杨,封芸..基于递归等权组合模型的中长期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(1):151-155,5.
