大气和海洋科学快报：英文版2011，Vol.4Issue(5)：270-275,6.
An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China
An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China
KE Zong-Jian 1ZHANG Pei-Qun 1CHEN Li-Juan 1DU Liang-Min2
作者信息
- 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
- 2. Wuhan Regional Climate center, Wuhan 430074, China
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
A combination of the optimal subset regression （OSR） approach, the coupled general circulation model of the National Climate Center （NCC-CGCM） and precipitation observations from 160 stations over China is used to construct a statistical downscaling forecast model for precipitation in summer. Retroactive forecasts are performed to assess the skill of statistical downscaling during the period from 2003 to 2009. The results show a poor simulation for summer precipitation by the NCCCGCM for China, and the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） is 0.01 in the forecast period. The forecast skill can be improved by OSR statistical downscaling, and the OSR forecast performs better than the NCC-CGCM in most years except 2003. The spatial ACC is more than 0.2 in the years 2008 and 2009, which proves to be relatively skillful. Moreover, the statistical downscaling forecast performs relatively well for the main rain belt of the summer precipitation in some years, including 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009. However, the forecast skill of statistical downscaling is restricted to some extent by the relatively low skill of the NCCCGCM.关键词
预测模型/夏季降水/降尺度/统计/模型试验/中国/平均空间异常/最优子集回归Key words
precipitation/statistical downscaling/China,summer分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
KE Zong-Jian,ZHANG Pei-Qun,CHEN Li-Juan,DU Liang-Min..An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China[J].大气和海洋科学快报：英文版,2011,4(5):270-275,6.
