电网技术2011，Vol.35Issue(10)：177-182,6.
基于诱导有序加权平均算子的最优组合短期负荷预测
An Optimal Combinational Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator
摘要
Abstract
To improve forecasting accuracy and remedy the defects of single forecasting methods consisting of existing combinational forecasting methods that the weighting coefficients at different forecasted points are regarded as constant, a new optimal combinational method for short-term load forecasting based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator （IOWA） is proposed. In allusion to the fact that the forecasted results are different by the same forecasting method at different time, the ordered weighting is applied to each single forecasting method according to its forecasting accuracy at different time to implement the complementation of their merits and demerits to reduce the dependence of forecasted result on a certain forecasting method and to improve the forecasting accuracy. According to the proposed forecasting method based on IOWA operator, an optimal forecasting model with corresponding weighting coefficients is built and the process and procedures of solving the proposed model by modern interior point method are given. Practical application results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy by combinational forecasting, and the computation time is shortened.关键词
负荷预测/组合预测/优化模型/诱导有序加权平均算子Key words
load forecasting/combinational forecasting/optimization model/induced ordered weighted averaging operator （IOWA）分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
黎静华,韦化..基于诱导有序加权平均算子的最优组合短期负荷预测[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):177-182,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（50907012,50867001）. （）
