灌溉排水学报2011，Vol.30Issue(5)：37-41,5.
陕西省耕地资源格局变化及驱动力研究
Analysis of the Cultivated Land Pattern Changes and Its Driving Forces in Shaanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
The cultivated land use status and its temporal-spatial pattern were analyzed based on the cultivated land statistical data in Shaanxi Province between 1990 and 2010.In this study,the principal component analysis method and the multiple linear regression models were applied to explore the relationship between the cultivated land resource and 14 driving factors.The result shows that： the total cultivated area and its average level have experienced ＂slow reduce-rapidly shrinking-relative stability and increased slightly＂ change process.The cultivated area in Shaanxi Province was basically decreasing for years,its internal structure changed greatly.The main driving factors of the cultivated area changing are agricultural structure adjustment,agricultural modernization level,social and economic factors.Using the grey dynamic prediction model GM（1,1） to forecast the cultivated land area in the following 11 years,the result shows that the cultivated area will decline continuously in the future,the cultivated area might be 2 263.74 khm2 by 2020.关键词
耕地资源/主成分分析/驱动因子/GM（1,1）/陕西省Key words
cultivated land/principal component analysis/driving factors/GM（1/1）/Shaanxi Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王契,冯浩..陕西省耕地资源格局变化及驱动力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(5):37-41,5.基金项目
国家863计划课题(2011AA100503) （2011AA100503）
西北农林科技大学重大项目培育专项 （）
