灌溉排水学报2012，Vol.31Issue(1)：54-57,77,5.
感潮河段洪潮遭遇概率研究
Flood and Stormtide Encounter Analysis in Tideway-Comparison of Multivariate Hydrological Probability Models
摘要
Abstract
Taken the case of problem of flood and stormtide encounter in estuary area of the Pearl River delta,several bivariate hydrological probability models are compared and analysed,which include mixed Gumbel model,Gumbel-Logistic model,and the Copula method,such as Gumbel-Hougard Copula,Clayton Copula,and Genest-Ghoudi Copula,etc,which belong to Archimedean Copulas.The results showed that the different bivariate probability models have different degrees limitation to the correlation between variables,and the fitful models should be chosen correctly by variables correlativity.Compared with mixed Gumbel model and Gumbel-Logistic model,the Copula models have no limitation to marginal distribution,and the marginal distribution can be any types of probability distribution function.Several goodness-of-fit test methods are applied to select the best models based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test,RMSE,BIAS,and AIC criterion.For each model,goodness-of-fit are different obviously,and the best model should be determined according to the characteristics of observed hydrological datum.关键词
洪潮遭遇/多变量水文概率分布模型/拟合优度检验Key words
flood and stormtide encounter/multivariate hydrological probability models/goodness-of-fit test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
谢华,冯晓波..感潮河段洪潮遭遇概率研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(1):54-57,77,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目 （）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 （）
