干旱地区农业研究2011，Vol.29Issue(6)：249-254,6.
新疆沙雅县近50a来气候变暖特征及其对农业生产的影响分析
Analysis of the climatic warming characteristics in recent 50 years and their effects on agricultural production of Shaya County in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
By using the data of average daily temperature from 1960 ~ 2009 provided by Shaya meteorological station, regression analysis and trend line analysis were applied to analyze the recent 50 years' annual temperature, accumulated temperature ≥ l0°C and extreme inter- annual and seasonal temperature variation and their impacts on agricultural production. The results showed: (1) The annual temperature showed an overall increasing trend, and the linear trend rate was 0.424°C /10a, while the temperature fluctuation was basically consistent with the temperature trends in Northwest China. The seasonal variation of temperature was obvious, and the winter, spring and autumn had a greater contribution to the annual temperature increase. (2) The accumulated temperature ≥ 10°C increased, its linear trend rate was 12 .302°C/10a, the number of sustained days increased, it increased 27.85 days during the last 50 years. During the research period, the extreme maximum temperature basically did not change, but the extreme minimum temperature tended to increase, the linear trend rate was 1.497°C/10a. (3) The annual temperature and accumulated temperature increased, it extended the growth period of the thermophilic crops. The average temperature in winter, especially the rise of the extreme minimum temperature is conducive to the extending of northern boundaries of winter crops to further north, the north going of multi-cropping system, thermophilic crop area expansion and the increasing of the multiple cropping index. But this increased the winter soil moisture evaporation which resulted in the decrease of pupae over wintering eggs disease mortality, this will increase the difficulty of pest control, and the increase of temperature in the crop growing period will reduce the accumulation of nutrients in time and the quality.关键词
气候变暖/农业生产/新疆沙雅县Key words
climatic warming/ agricultural production/ Shaya County/ Xinjiang分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
满苏尔·沙比提,娜斯曼·那斯尔丁..新疆沙雅县近50a来气候变暖特征及其对农业生产的影响分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(6):249-254,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40961032) （40961032）
