干旱区研究2012，Vol.29Issue(1)：1-10,10.
近50a中国降水变化的准周期性特征及未来的变化趋势
Analysis on Quasi-periodic Characteristics of Precipitation in Recent 50 Years and Trend in Next 20 Years in China
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the periodic characteristics of annual precipitation in 8 climate regions in recent about 50 years from 1961 to 2006 were analyzed,and the annual precipitation in next 20 years from 2006 to 2026 was predicted.The results show that,at annual scale,there was a periodicity of the change of annual precipitation in most of the 8 climate regions,the high-frequency change（3-4 years） was dominant,and its stability was high.In the past 50 years,annual precipitation was in a decrease trend in most of the 8 climate regions except that in arid and semiarid regions in west China.In next 20 years,annual precipitation will be in a slight decrease trend in most of the 8 climate regions except in a slight increase trend in arid and semiarid regions in west China.关键词
气候区/降水量/变化周期/小波分析/降水预测/中国Key words
climate region/precipitation/change periodicity/wavelet analysis/precipitation prediction/China分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王澄海,李健,李小兰,许晓光..近50a中国降水变化的准周期性特征及未来的变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):1-10,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金 （）
气象行业专项（GYHY201006023）资助 （）
